Country Overview

Qualitative overview

  • Brazil’s economy saw improvement with real GDP increasing by 1.1% in 2018. The real value of private final consumption rose by 2.0% in 2018 on the back of consumer spending, which is supported by a record low-interest rate of 6.5% in 2018.
  • The contribution of exports to the economy has been traditionally low, with exports contributing 12.8% of GDP in 2017. In 2018, there were gains of 10.8% with the development of neighbouring economies. The primary export markets for Brazil in 2018 being China, the EU and the USA.
  • Another driver of the recovering economy in Brazil is the extent of investments from China with Beijing recently acquiring a majority share in Brazil’s second-busiest port by volume. Additionally, other Chinese companies have begun building and bidding for additional ports and railways. This increase in foreign investment is expected to help drive the economic recovery while also building trade ties between Brazil and international markets.

Data overview

 20182023CAGR % (2018/2023)2028CAGR % (2018/2028)
Population (‘000)209,469216,6420.7%222,1070.2%
GDP (USD million)1,868,8372,047,7721.8%2,301,8501.2%
GDP per cap (USD)8,9229,4521.2%10,3640.9%
Disposable income (USD million)1,319,3981,466,7672.1%1,667,8261.3%
Median disposable income per household (USD)13,27114,1291.3%15,5991.0%

Top 3 Cities of Brazil

CitiesPopulation (‘000) – 2020
São Paulo21,738
Rio de Janeiro13,111
Belo Horizonte6,050

Age pyramid

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
Note: Data for 2030 is forecast

Economic prospects

  • Unemployment in Brazil saw some improvement in 2019 compared to the 2018 level of 12.3%. There is a high expectation for the new government to deliver reforms. The contraction in industrial output was compensated for by the growth in services and primary sectors, with the prospects for agricultural output remaining favourable.
  • Inflation in 2018 and 2019 was in line with the central bank target of 3-6%. Consumer expenditure is expected to remain robust, primarily owing to the low-interest rate of 6.5%.
  • The country is also seeing a shift from its primary consumption-led growth model, which may have run its course. Government officials are making significant cuts to permanent expenditures to comply with the present government’s fiscal targets. Overall, it is expected to add 0.3% to GDP growth.